Sunday Showdown:
Saints Look to Get Back to .500 After 0-4 Start
Saints Look to Get Back to .500 After 0-4 Start
Here's my weekly take on the Keys to the Game for the Saints on Sunday!
Some would be automatically inclined to write off the Raiders, and give us an auto win. That’s not the case here. The Saints have the opportunity to reclaim a .500 record on Sunday, but their matchup against the Raiders screams the classic ‘Trap Game’.
Offense
The Raiders are coming off back to back games, in which they gave up 42 to the Bucs, and 55 to the Ravens. In fact, they are currently surrendering 31.6 pts/game, which is ranked 31st on the year. They’ve proven they can be run on (see Doug Martin), and passed on (see Joe Flacco). Since Vitt has returned, the Saints play calling has been extremely balanced, with Vitt believing in a heavy dose of the run, which has enabled Drew Brees to kill, audible, & have the play action going for him. You would think we should call upon Chris Ivory to make things happen, but I’m fairly sure teams are gonna catch on to it. He’s simply running like a beast. However, I look for us to mix it up, in terms of personnel. Not many have mentioned it, but Pierre Thomas was virtually absent last week, and while it’s refreshing to not have use him and win, I still gotta favor him as the featured back against the Raiders. Should Sproles return this week, that prediction likely changes, but I’d also rather not force him back in the lineup, and get 100% of his Beast Mode against the 49ers. We saw the successes of Jimmy Graham, who had a career game against the Falcons last week, and Lance Moore being Lance Moore. I believe this week keys on the run game, but will feature a lot of reads that will give the Raiders some fits. Our 3rd down conversion will dictate how creative we get. I personally don’t want to see Brees throwing it over 35x per game unless he absolutely has to. A moderate, yet aggressive attack should spell for a good day.
The Raiders are coming off back to back games, in which they gave up 42 to the Bucs, and 55 to the Ravens. In fact, they are currently surrendering 31.6 pts/game, which is ranked 31st on the year. They’ve proven they can be run on (see Doug Martin), and passed on (see Joe Flacco). Since Vitt has returned, the Saints play calling has been extremely balanced, with Vitt believing in a heavy dose of the run, which has enabled Drew Brees to kill, audible, & have the play action going for him. You would think we should call upon Chris Ivory to make things happen, but I’m fairly sure teams are gonna catch on to it. He’s simply running like a beast. However, I look for us to mix it up, in terms of personnel. Not many have mentioned it, but Pierre Thomas was virtually absent last week, and while it’s refreshing to not have use him and win, I still gotta favor him as the featured back against the Raiders. Should Sproles return this week, that prediction likely changes, but I’d also rather not force him back in the lineup, and get 100% of his Beast Mode against the 49ers. We saw the successes of Jimmy Graham, who had a career game against the Falcons last week, and Lance Moore being Lance Moore. I believe this week keys on the run game, but will feature a lot of reads that will give the Raiders some fits. Our 3rd down conversion will dictate how creative we get. I personally don’t want to see Brees throwing it over 35x per game unless he absolutely has to. A moderate, yet aggressive attack should spell for a good day.
Defense
Pretty simple, Carson Palmer has a track history of throwing it a ton, especially with his team being down in games. He has been sacked 17 times this season, and been picked off 9 times this season as opposed to his 15 TDs. He has very young WR weapons that have a tendency to get behind defenders, and make long gains. The early reports show that Darren McFadden may play, as he has been nursing a high ankle sprain, which would be a huge boost to the Raiders offense. If he plays, the focus lies on that front seven to recreate the type of production that we had against Turner/Rodgers. If he doesn’t, we don’t ignore the run, but it becomes more about pressuring Carson Palmer. Good things definitely can come of that. The Saints have 21 sacks on the year, which is tied for 13th in the NFL this year. Yards still don’t win games, and even with Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez each going over 100 yards receiving, the Saints showed up when they were needed most. The focus centers again the secondary, and how they will match up against the speed of the WRs. Spagnoulo continues to mold this defense, and is still critical of how they play against called blitzes, and general play. I believe our linebackers only get better with each game, and I personally drooled a little after seeing Vilma-Lofton-Hawthorne on the field together. Lofton was assigned to be our Middle LB, which looks to be the right call. Even Casillas is shaping up nicely in our scheme, so beyond the regular LBs, we have promising depth. Look for the Saints to get that pressure, and force the Raiders off the field, setting up the offense to do their thing.
Pretty simple, Carson Palmer has a track history of throwing it a ton, especially with his team being down in games. He has been sacked 17 times this season, and been picked off 9 times this season as opposed to his 15 TDs. He has very young WR weapons that have a tendency to get behind defenders, and make long gains. The early reports show that Darren McFadden may play, as he has been nursing a high ankle sprain, which would be a huge boost to the Raiders offense. If he plays, the focus lies on that front seven to recreate the type of production that we had against Turner/Rodgers. If he doesn’t, we don’t ignore the run, but it becomes more about pressuring Carson Palmer. Good things definitely can come of that. The Saints have 21 sacks on the year, which is tied for 13th in the NFL this year. Yards still don’t win games, and even with Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez each going over 100 yards receiving, the Saints showed up when they were needed most. The focus centers again the secondary, and how they will match up against the speed of the WRs. Spagnoulo continues to mold this defense, and is still critical of how they play against called blitzes, and general play. I believe our linebackers only get better with each game, and I personally drooled a little after seeing Vilma-Lofton-Hawthorne on the field together. Lofton was assigned to be our Middle LB, which looks to be the right call. Even Casillas is shaping up nicely in our scheme, so beyond the regular LBs, we have promising depth. Look for the Saints to get that pressure, and force the Raiders off the field, setting up the offense to do their thing.
Special Teams
I’m still not laying off of Garrett Hartley, and neither should you. He made the lone field goal that he was called upon last week, which proved to be a crucial one. I’m not saying I want to see more of him, but more to the point, I want to feel secure that he can make the clutch kicks when he is needed to. Morstead was praised by Spagnoulo in the presser for his booming punts, so there’s no worry I have, just protect the leg. With Sproles out, we haven’t seen much on the return game in terms of Punt Returns, mainly just ball security (hence Lance Moore).
I’m still not laying off of Garrett Hartley, and neither should you. He made the lone field goal that he was called upon last week, which proved to be a crucial one. I’m not saying I want to see more of him, but more to the point, I want to feel secure that he can make the clutch kicks when he is needed to. Morstead was praised by Spagnoulo in the presser for his booming punts, so there’s no worry I have, just protect the leg. With Sproles out, we haven’t seen much on the return game in terms of Punt Returns, mainly just ball security (hence Lance Moore).
X-Factor
So many to choose, and figuring out ‘that guy’ is no easy feat. I’m going to turn again to the defense this week, and specifically Roman Harper. As my colleague states, name me 4 better Strong Safeties that aren’t Troy Polamalu playing right now. I believe his versatility will bring about some pressure that could force Palmer into some situations where he’ll make some of those mistakes, and not be able to escape the pressure & go down on that baseball field.
So many to choose, and figuring out ‘that guy’ is no easy feat. I’m going to turn again to the defense this week, and specifically Roman Harper. As my colleague states, name me 4 better Strong Safeties that aren’t Troy Polamalu playing right now. I believe his versatility will bring about some pressure that could force Palmer into some situations where he’ll make some of those mistakes, and not be able to escape the pressure & go down on that baseball field.
If you haven’t realized it by now, I don’t think this will be a walk in the park, or at least it won’t start off that way. Lord knows I hope I’mwrong, and that the Saints get off to an amazing start, and never look back. We’re on the road, and facing an opponent who is desperate for a win. I still believe we will best them in the end, but don’t expect a landslide victory or 50 burger. I honestly hope I'm wrong, and we beat the drawers off of the Raiders, and get even more swagger back to our team.
Final Prediction: Saints 34, Raiders 24
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