Wednesday, September 19, 2012

The Lines: Week 3

NFL 2012 - Week 3
Lines - a collective collaboration with Eighth Round Pick

Using our collective insight (and 
Football Locks),  teams up with  () to bring you our Lines for Week 3 of the NFL Season. Let's look at the previous week:

Week Two Picks
  • New England Patriots -13.5
  • St. Louis +3
  • Baltimore +2
  • Seattle +3
  • Denver +3
  • NYG -7.5
  • New England -13.5
  • Dallas -3
  • Pittsburgh -6
  • Denver +3
Kev bested Hispandrix in the Over/Unders, as we were both let down by Denver & New England. This brings Kev up to a 4-1 lead in this early season. 

Week Three Picks
  • Cleveland +3
  • Arizona +3.5
  • New England +3
  • Denver +2
  • Jacksonville +3
  • San Francisco -6.5
  • Detroit -3.5
  • Indianapolis -3.5
  • Washington -3
  • Buffalo -3
Hispandrix's Take
San Francisco (-6.5) at Minnesota
There's not much to really say about this one. The 49ers defense is going to give the Vikings fits, and make it a long day for Christian Ponder. I'm just dying to see Randy Moss' acceptance in Minnesota. If he scores, it'll be even more interesting to see. Too many weapons for the Vikings to overcome, blowout.

Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee
Titans have 23 points in two games, and they faced defenses they could have really scored on. Not having CJ2K (maybe he should change that) get anything going on the ground, and I mean 19 carries for 21 yards through 2 games not get anything going on the ground spells disaster for the Titans. It forces Locker to pass, pass, and pass some more. You don't think Gunther Cunnigham knows this?

Indianapolis (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
Horrible showing last week for the Jags. This franchise is on the verge of turmoil. Andrew Luck is finding success in more ways that one. I see him having a pretty big day at home, and it could get ugly fast. Maybe we'll see more MJD, but in the youthful QB showdown....I'll gladly take Luck over Gabbert.

Washington (-3) vs. Cincinnati
I'll just reminder everyone that Josh Morgan is a huge idiot. This one is fairly simple....RGIII, Home Opener, chaos. It's not that I don't like Cincy, it's just I think Washington has way more going for them right now. 

Buffalo (-3) at Cleveland
As I stated before, might have saw the most offense out of Cleveland this season against the Bengals. Then again, it's Buffalo. I'm not sure if the Browns will have a good answer for CJ Spiller, and as long as he's truckin' hard....then I'll gladly take the Bills.

Kev's Take
Coming off my horrible 1-4 performance in week one I had to study a bit more in week two. I got cute with the Broncos +3 Monday Night, that should have been a stay away. Even so, I went 3-2 last week, bringing me to 4-6 on the season. The plan is obviously to be above .500 by the end of week 3. In order to do that, I'll do what I did in week 2... ride the dogs.

Cleveland +3 (home vs Buffalo)

The Bills looked horrible in all facets in week one, and then dominated a horrible KC team in week two. Now they travel to a bad field and face a defense much better than anyone realizes. Wait until Sunday morning for this one, let the line move up to 4 or 4.5, and then throw everything you have on the Cleveland Browns. They'll win this game straight up.

Arizona +3.5 (home vs Philadelphia)

Like the Browns, Arizona has a defense much better than anyone realizes. Beating the Patriots in New England is crazy impressive. And if you're a believer in the Seahawks - and I am, and you should be after that thrashing last week - than you're even more impressed by this Cardinals team. There might not be 35 combined points in this game, and it'll be ugly, but that's why you have to take the home dog.

New England +3 (at Baltimore)

One of these teams will lose their second straight game to start off 1-2. Based on recent performances between these two teams, this might be a semi-high scoring affair (think 27-24). Vegas obviously thinks these teams are even, and I don't necessarily buy the home bump for Baltimore. Once again I'm taking the points & running.

Denver +2 (home vs Houston)

Take away the first quarter of their second game - a MNF road game - and the Broncos have been the better team in 7 of 8 quarters this year. And that was against two teams arguably just as good as the Texans. Home dogs rule in week 3.

For my last pick, I'm tempted by the Dolphins +2 at home, but while I'm a gambler I'm not a gambling man. I really like the Vikings +6.5 at home against the 49ers, but I'm not nearly brave enough to make a prediction like that... especially with a 4-6 record through two weeks. I loved the Panthers +1 at home, but now that half the Giants team is injured the line has moved all the way down to Giants +2.5. That's almost as tempting as Panthers +1. Knowing that I like both teams if they're getting a point or two tells me that I'm staying the hell away from this one.

Jacksonville +3 (at Indianapolis)

The Colts got thrashed by a Bears team that we are now seeing is potentially not very good. They honestly didn't look much better against a bad Vikings team. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have looked atrocious. But, they are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 in Indianapolis. 7 of those games were against very good Colt teams, and not necessarily with good Jaguar teams. I'll side with history... and the points.

Five picks. Five dogs. The first two weeks have been so unpredictable I'm going to take the points for the rest of September until I fully get a grasp on what the hell is happening in this league this season.

No comments:

Post a Comment