Saturday, December 22, 2012

Keys to the Game: Saints @ Cowboys

Sunday Showdown:

Saints Look to Play Spoils Against the Cowboys







Here's my weekly take on the Keys to the Game for the Saints Sunday showdown!


With two weeks left in the season, things are always interesting at this point. The Wild Card races always have 1,000 possible scenarios with tiebreakers, home field advantage is looking to be locked up, and records are closed to being made. For the Saints, not much of that is happening, at this point, it’s simply pride. Again, mathematically the Saints are still alive for the Wild Card, but we need basically everyone ahead of us to lose, lose again, and for us to win out. Enter the Cowboys (8-6), who have been winners of their last 3 (including victories over the Steelers, Bengals, and Eagles), and 5 of their last 6, breaking a trend that usually ends badly for them in December. Since 2001, New Orleans has had Dallas’ number, winning 4 of the last 5 matchups. It’s a battle of the Palindrome Records this week, as the Saints look to play spoilers, and end this season on a high note.

Offense
First and foremost, the offensive line must fend off the pressure that Rob Ryan is prepared to send. You remember that game against the Browns a couple years ago where we lost at home? It was Rob Ryan’s defense, who handed the Saints a very tough loss, frustrating Brees & company on the day. Now of course, a lot has changed since then, but ultimately this is my top key. Ryan WILL send the blitz, and Breeswill have to get rid of it quicker than he would like, and the receivers have to do a good job of route running to put them in place to make plays. It’s hardly a secret, arguably their best weapons are DeMarcus Ware & Anthony Spencer, so that will be your big matchup to watch. From an injury perspective….Collins has not practiced thus far this week, which is something to keep an eye on, 
Strief practiced Friday, while PT & Ivory have all been limited. Mark Ingram, to our delight, gladly got things done on the ground last week against the Bucs, and. Remember when the Saints were dead last in the league in Rushing? My how that’s changed, as the Saints are flirting with over 100 yards/game this season (99.9 actual). The Dallas D is middle of the road when it comes to stats, allowing 340.3 yards/game (225.1 in Passing, 115.2 in Rushing). The other key to watch here is how the secondary of the Cowboys (Claiborne/Carr/Sensabaugh/Church) matches up against the WR threat. Who covers Joe Morgan for the deep ball? Does Claiborne take Colston or Moore? Who’s gonna solve for Jimmy Graham? I believe the Saints should find some successes on the day, and move the chains a fair amount, because there are just so many weapons/ways that the Saints can beat you. That Darren Sproles guy might give Ryan some fits as well….look for that. One side note, did you know the Saints are 2nd in the league in TDs? They have 49 total, which is right behind the Patriots, with 61. Food for thought.

Defense
Here’s where I am most interested. I believe the defense has a true test here, and this game could easily set the tone for next season. The defense has now got to the point where they are +10 in Net Points (389-379), which is a huge accomplishment. Sure, on paper, they are dead last in defense because of the 433 yards/game, but yards (as we’ve seen) don’t win games. On the injury side, Patrick Robinson has been Limited this week. Now I usually would save this for the end of the season to recap, but the Spagnoulo squad has produced 27 Sacks (24 is the NFL average), 14 INTs (18 Average), & 11 Forced Fumbles (11 Average), are you still calling for Spagnoulo’s head? I look for the secondary to be our biggest thing to watch here, and specifically the newer/younger guys like Quddus, Mack, and Bush. Quddus & Bush have had the opportunity to shine a bit with Jenkins on IR. Jabari showed up in a big way last week, picking Freeman off twice. I know that the Cowboys would love to run Demarco Murray a lot on the day, so the front seven is going to be key to contain him. In the past several games (yes even the Giants), we have seen this unit shutdown/contain the rushing attacks. I have mildly stated this, but having a full healthy array of LBs does wonders, as Hawthorne is an integral part of that. The other part is wrapping up Tony Romo, as everyone is no stranger to his ability to stretch the play, and get away from defenders. Wrap him up, and make him do the bonehead things that make him Tony Romo.

Special Teams
I still won’t let off Hartley much, because in my opinion, he has to remain perfect for the remaining two games. He’s done a lot better, bouncing back from those 3 ugly misses in the beginning of the season, to now be 15/18. When we call on Morstead, he’s there for us, and I never look at him to have issues. It’s really the special teams coverage is what we have to keep an eye on after the Giants meltdown. They responded nicely last week against the Bucs, but when you have the issues before, it’s hard to forget them. Could this be the week we see Sproles run one back?

X-Factor
Again, the difference maker down the stretch for us is Drew Brees. If he has a bad game, or is off, the Saints are off. Nothing I stated earlier in the offensive keys comes true unless Brees gets the time, and plays virtually mistake free. I believe he’s poised for a very strong outing.

Each person is stating this has the makings of a shootout. I tend to agree. The Cowboys have certainly shown their vulnerability at times, and make us all wonder, what awesome defense? The Saints offense got their swagger back last week, and their defense has only gotten better.  This type of game rings of an almost home game, as you are sure to see a lot of Black & Gold in Jerry World. Will we see bad Romo finally? How many passes will Dez Bryant drop? What coaching errors will Jason Garrett make that everyone wants to still get Sean Payton? I believe it’ll be a good solid matchup, start as a back and forth, but the score may surprise you, as one team clearly will pull away.

Final Prediction: Saints 33, Cowboys 24

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